CTC Advanced Repayment Bet

[G2R]

Given the abundance of "we forgive you, you don't have to pay back the error" approaches Congress continues to pass in our tax code, does anyone think that the CTC advance payments will likely be forgiven anyway come 2022 tax season?  I mean it's like a carbon copy of the APTC, and I've got a number of clients who are getting away with murder in that area. 

Just my Saturday morning thoughts... 

[TexTaxToo]

The way I read it, there is forgiveness of up to $2000 per "ghost" child for MAGI < $40,000 ($50k HOH, $60k MFJ).  There is no forgiveness for MAGI > $80,000 ($100k HOH, $120k MFJ), and forgiveness phases out in-between. 

(I'm calling a child for whom advanced payments are received but who is not claimed on the 2021 return a "ghost" child.)

Since the advanced payments should be $1500 per child ($1800 if under age 6), that would forgive everything for low-income parents.  I've heard that the IRS wants to prevent divorced parents who alternately claim a child from getting paid twice, but I'm not sure how they will.
 

[grandmabee]

if they went by SSN of the child they could prevent trading dependents.

[TAXMAN]

In some of my reading I thought it was going to be SS#. This would prevent double dipping.

[TexTaxToo]

For EIP3 (unlike EIP1 and EIP2), the law says that the IRS should try to prevent multiple payments for the same person "to the maximum extent administratively practicable".  I assume they will use SSN to track payments and not allow RRC for anyone for whom EIP3 was paid, even if they are now a dependent on a different return.

I don't see a similar provision for CTC and advanced CTC, so it will be interesting to see what the IRS does.